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November 30, 2006

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Kevin Hillstrom

Thanks for calling out the e-mail post, I appreciate it!

Ultimately, contact strategies are determined by four factors.

(1) The incremental sales generated by the contact strategy.

(2) The incremental profit generated by the contact strategy.

(3) The long-term value lost by customers opting out of communication.

When I worked at Lands' End in the early 1990s, we executed 128 separate contact strategies for a one-year period of time. We learned which strategy was most effective at driving sales, and at driving profit.

The most profitable strategy was one that had maybe 2/3 to 3/4 of the contacts. It resulted in about a 10% drop in net sales for the average customer.

Management could not accept a 10% reduction in net sales, so we did not change the contact strategy.

Same thing at Eddie Bauer, when we executed a similar test. Our CEO required that any change in contact strategy increase both sales and profit.

You will find that regardless of the mix of tools you have (RSS, E-Mail, Chat, Phone, Direct Mail, Catalogs), there is a point of over-saturation that can only be identified via well-designed experiments.

Jason Stoffer

Kevin, interesting insights, as in all your posts! What is unique to the online post-secondary education industry is the nature of the sale. It is a one-time sale of $15-$30K for a degree program. Unlike Land's End, there is no real opportunity to use a contact strategy to increase the lifetime value of an existing customer by increasing frequency or dollar amount per sale (or reducing opt-out % for that matter)

So the challenge we face is in new customer acquisition and determining how to find a contact strategy with potential students that will get them to make that large upfront monetary and time commitment to a degree program. To get to the answer in our industry, as you did with Eddie Bauer and Lands' End, we have to do a lot of A/B testing to figure out what the right frequency and type of contacts is for different segments of potential customers (based on degree level, degree program, lead source, etc.)

Kevin Hillstrom

You might look into life-table methodology. The methodology uses conditional probabilities, and you can associate costs with the conditional probabilities. You would use it like an insurance company uses it. The insurance company receives money from the customer, then has to pay out in the event of an "accident". You would do the opposite. You pay out (marketing) until there is a large, upfront monetary commitment.

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